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The American Farm Bureau Federation analysis maps the $8.5 billion in trade assistance payments to farmers hit by retaliatory tariffs. It notes that the package followed earlier retaliation on soybeans, feed grains, pork and other products, which raised inventories in 2018.
Trade aid helps offset lost export demand for soybeans, corn, sorghum and hogs, supporting producer selling capacity and keeping inventories elevated against prices.
fb.orgAllison Wilton, John Newton, Ph.D.Jun 12, 2019After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 28 past neutral trade events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -2.2% to +0.7%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
