Rabobank's Q3 Pork Quarterly report says the US-China trade war is creating uncertainty in China's pork industry, with higher tariffs on inputs such as soybeans raising costs. It also warns that the Senecavirus A virus could become a bigger risk if farms reduce biosecurity to cut costs.
Higher input costs may slow large-farm expansion and push small farms out, making Chinese pork supply more volatile and affecting feed demand over time.
After 224 past neutral trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.2%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 28 past neutral trade events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -2.2% to +0.7%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.