
Higher US pork exports in Q1 2024 cut domestic availability 1.7% despite higher slaughter. Pork bellies rose in Q1, but analyst Jim Eadie says they need another 25-30% gain to justify summer futures.
Lean hog futures had declined over the prior two weeks on softer fresh pork demand.
Strong export pull supports pork values, but weak fresh demand and belly pricing suggest summer hog futures are vulnerable to downside, which affects hog-finishing feed demand.
After 28 past neutral trade events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -2.2% to +0.7%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.