Pakistan's urea sales rose 5 percent year-on-year to 2.87 million tons in the first half of 2019, as buyers pre-bought ahead of a July gas-price-driven increase. Rainfall also lifted summer crop demand, and urea production grew 13 percent.
Pre-buying ahead of higher gas-linked urea prices pulls forward demand and may tighten local supply after the rush. Higher domestic urea prices from gas tariff increases support nitrogen fertiliser costs in Pakistan.
After 92 past bullish macro events, Urea moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.0% to +3.6%), and +4.8% over 20.
After 155 past bullish macro events, Natural Gas moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.0% to +7.1%), and +2.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.