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Vietcap maintains a 2025 forecast of USD350/tonne for the average Middle East urea price, up 4% year on year. The forecast reflects higher gas prices, a 3% fall in global exports, and a modest recovery in demand.
Vietcap also sees prices normalizing toward USD330/tonne for 2026 to 2029.
A forecast rise in urea prices in 2025 increases nitrogen fertilizer costs for grain growers, which can support corn prices over time. The outlook is an equity research view rather than a near-term supply event.
vietcap.com.vnVIETCAPJan 17, 2025After 92 past bullish macro events, Urea moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.0% to +3.6%), and +4.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
