
China has bought about 14.3 million tonnes of last season's U.S. soybean crop, the least in 11 years, with about 3.7 million tonnes still to ship. China had bought 32.9 million tonnes in 2017 before the trade war, and it applied a 25% tariff on soybeans in July 2018.
Sharply lower Chinese purchases reduce export demand for U.S. soybeans and meal, adding downward pressure on prices and encouraging farmers to hold or sell at lower basis.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.