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US soybean exporters are losing sales to China as Brazil supplies the key shipping period before the US crop year starts in September. Traders warn that a prolonged absence of Chinese purchases could pressure Chicago futures, which are near five-year lows.
Brazil filling China's demand window reduces US export opportunities and keeps Chicago soybean prices under pressure. The risk grows if Chinese buying of US beans stays absent into the new crop year.
reuters.comNaveen Thukral, Ella CaoAug 13, 2025After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
