A weekly report from Fertilizer Engineering shows international urea FOB prices rose 3%, from $431 to $442/t, between January 22 and 29. Urea is 9% above the December 2025 average and 8% above a year earlier, while MAP prices remain firm.
Lower exportable availability from China and Iran, plus possible Indian return to the market, keeps urea and phosphate prices under upward pressure. Persistent input inflation raises feed-grain production costs.
After 76 past bullish report events, Urea moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.2% to +2.9%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 66 past bullish report events, DAP moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.7%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.