China's domestic urea market firmed in the week ending July 21, 2023, with the Feidoodoo small-particle index at 2,399.82 yuan/t, up 0.15% on the month. Futures rally lifted spot sentiment and orders, though some factories limited sales and downstream buyers pushed back as prices climbed.
Domestic output was steady at 163,200 t/day, with port stocks of small-particle urea rising to 77,000 t.
Rising international and futures prices supported Chinese urea, but growing downstream resistance and higher port stocks cap the upside. Export expectations linked to global prices may still lift the market.
After 76 past bullish report events, Urea moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.2% to +2.9%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.