
University of Illinois economist Scott Irwin proposed two changes to upcoming EPA rulemakings to offset small refinery exemptions from 2016 to 2018. Senators from oil-producing states met White House officials and opposed any volume reallocation, and no deal had been announced.
Uncertainty over whether RFS volumes will be reallocated or raised keeps biofuel feedstock demand unsettled, which matters for soybean oil and corn pricing.
After 196 past neutral policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 439 past neutral policy events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.2%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.