
EPA's proposal raises renewable volume obligations by about 3% for 2019, with cellulosic and advanced biofuel targets rising 100 million and 600 million gallons. Soybean groups welcomed the biodiesel increase, while the National Farmers Union criticized waivers that have reduced renewable fuel demand.
Biodiesel volume growth supports soybean oil prices, but waivers reducing blending demand limit how much of the increase reaches the market.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 439 past neutral policy events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.2%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.