
The USTR/USDA report found China implemented 50 of 57 structural changes under the Phase One agreement, while the Peterson Institute offered a differing assessment. The agreement targets US agricultural exports to China rising $12.5 billion above 2017 levels in 2020 and $19.5 billion in 2021.
Progress toward Phase One purchase targets shapes expected Chinese demand for US soybeans, corn and other farm goods, with shortfalls posing downside risk to US prices.
After 554 past neutral policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 439 past neutral policy events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.2%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.