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An AEI report by Joseph Glauber estimates about $28 billion in 2018 and 2019 US farm trade aid and assesses how these payments affect WTO domestic support limits. It notes that about 75 percent of 2018 payments went to soybean growers, concentrated in Corn Belt states.
If aid pushes US domestic support toward WTO limits, future support could be constrained, affecting farm income and planting incentives. The analysis is a policy assessment with no immediate price shock.
aei.orgJoseph W. GlauberNov 19, 2019After 1,623 past policy events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 1,905 past policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.8%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 1,019 past policy events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
