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AEI analysis says the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed July 4, 2025, raises federal farm subsidy payments by $65.5 billion over ten years and increases crop insurance coverage and premium subsidies. It notes a possible skinny farm bill is unlikely to pass before 2026.
Expanded subsidies and insurance support keep US acreage in production despite weak margins, which weighs on prices over time, though the effect is gradual.
aei.orgBarry K. Goodwin, Vincent H. SmithOct 15, 2025After 439 past neutral policy events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.2%), and +1.1% over 20.
After 554 past neutral policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
