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Argentina's export tax cuts respond to lower commodity prices, real currency appreciation and another drought. The measure carries an estimated fiscal cost of USD800mn, about 0.13% of GDP.
The government says it will not remove export taxes until tax revenues rise enough to offset the loss.
Lower export earnings could worsen exchange market pressure and affect Argentine export flows of soy products and grains, which matters for world meal and oil supply.
doi.orgOxford AnalyticaJan 27, 2025After 206 past neutral policy events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.3% to +1.8%), and -0.7% over 20.
After 554 past neutral policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
