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An AEI analysis by Glauber and Smith reviews the past 20 years of US farm policy, noting growing federal crop insurance subsidies, a shift toward countercyclical payments, and large ad hoc disaster payments tied to China trade disputes and the pandemic. It says the Biden administration is pursuing more subsidies for minority and small farmers and more conservation funding.
Sustained policy support for farm incomes can keep acreage and production decisions tied to program payments rather than price signals, which matters for long-run feed grain supply. Expiring ad hoc payments could weigh on farm incomes and demand for feed if they are not renewed.
aei.orgJoseph W. Glauber, Vincent H. SmithOct 1, 2021After 439 past neutral policy events, CORN moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.2%), and +1.1% over 20.
After 554 past neutral policy events, SOY moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
