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A European Forest Institute policy brief based on interviews with cocoa, palm oil, and soy traders examines how they may respond to the EU deforestation proposal. Traders are likely to supply the EU with deforestation-free products while redirecting volumes still linked to deforestation to markets with laxer rules.
The brief suggests the regulation's impact on total forest loss could be limited.
If traders redirect non-compliant volumes elsewhere, EU supply of soy and palm oil may stay adequate, limiting price effects for feed buyers.
efi.intSep 6, 2022After 554 past neutral policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 513 past neutral policy events, Palm Oil moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.4%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
