
Urea supply to farmers in Madhya Pradesh covered only about half of the 400,000-bag November requirement, with black-market bags selling at Rs 350-400 against a government price of Rs 260. Farmers blocked a national highway, and the state blamed the Centre.
Localized Indian urea shortages and stockpiling at companies point to distribution problems rather than a global supply shift, so the direct price impact on feed commodities is limited.
After 129 past bullish policy events, Urea moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.3%), and +1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.