
India cut import taxes on crude and refined palm oil from ASEAN countries after a request from suppliers. Crude palm oil duty fell to 40 percent from 44 percent and refined to 50 percent from 54 percent, with Malaysian refined shipments taxed at 45 percent.
The cuts took effect on January 1, 2019.
The narrower duty gap with soyoil and sunflower oil is expected to raise palm oil imports from India in the coming months. This supports palm oil prices and weighs on competing soyoil.
After 133 past bullish trade events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (64% higher; middle half -0.8% to +2.3%), and +1.7% over 20.
After 152 past bearish trade events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
India's duty cuts on crude (44% to 40%) and refined (54% to 50%) palm oil effective Jan 1 lower landed cost and raise import demand, the main trade catalyst for the rally.
The India duty cut on ASEAN palm oil effective Jan 1 (Malaysia benefiting most) lowers landed costs and boosts expected demand, which is the core trade-flow driver of the price jump.