Malaysia remained India's largest palm oil supplier from November 2020 to March 2021, shipping 1.68 million mt versus Indonesia's 1.29 million mt. Analysts link the shift to Indonesia's higher export taxes, and India raised its CPO additional duty by 17.5% in February.
India's strong buying from Malaysia tightens palm availability for other buyers, while India's duty changes narrow the tax gap with soyoil and shift demand between vegetable oils.
After 133 past bullish trade events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (64% higher; middle half -0.8% to +2.3%), and +1.7% over 20.
After 152 past bearish trade events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.