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Skymet estimates India's rice output at about 90 million tonnes, roughly 10% below the government estimate for the Kharif 2019 season. Heavy monsoon rains and floods have damaged kharif crops, and this would be the first output decline in five years.
Prices of rice, pulses and edible oils are expected to rise.
A smaller Indian kharif rice crop reduces exportable surplus and supports global rice prices.
After 179 past bullish weather events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.