
Philippine well-milled rice prices rose 17% year on year to P45.51 per kilogram in the second week of September, and the country is expected to miss its 2018 rice production target of 19.8 million tons. Typhoon Ompong damaged crops, and the farm secretary said output will not recover in the fourth quarter.
Typhoon losses and a shortfall in output will keep Philippine import demand strong, supporting world rice prices.
After 179 past bullish weather events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.