
ABARES says summer crop production in Queensland and northern NSW will fall 66% to around 878,000 tonnes after unfavourable seasonal conditions. Grain sorghum production is expected to fall 77% to about 292,000 tonnes, cotton output by 72%, and rice production will remain low.
Rainfall outlooks point to below-average rain through March to May.
Sharply lower sorghum and rice supplies tighten Australian feed grain availability and support prices. Continued dry outlooks raise the risk of further supply losses.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 179 past bullish weather events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.