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India's 2026-27 rainfall has run 15% below normal since June, with deficits of up to 42% in some rice-growing states. USDA forecasts the rice crop at 147 million tonnes, down 4.5%, and industry estimates point to a steeper fall.
A smaller Indian rice crop cuts the supply of the world's largest exporter, which supports international rice prices even with large state stocks.
thehindubusinessline.comAmit GoelOct 25, 2026After 179 past bullish weather events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
