USA Rice's World Market Price Subcommittee reviewed USDA's first 2017/18 global supply projections and cut U.S. production estimates sharply. Severe mid-south flooding, especially in Arkansas, the top rice-producing state, has already caused large planting losses.
The University of Arkansas estimates more than 181,000 acres were lost.
Lower U.S. rice area and output reduce exportable supply, which is a bullish signal for U.S. rough and milled rice prices. The next official acreage figure, due June 30, could confirm further losses.
After 179 past bullish weather events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.