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ABARES cut its wheat forecast for Australia after lower-than-expected yields in SA, WA and NSW, and cut its summer crop estimates after dry conditions in Queensland and northern NSW. Queensland sorghum area fell 61% and production is forecast down 74%, with NSW sorghum at a record low.
Private forecasters suggest ABARES may be overstating the national wheat crop.
Tight sorghum supplies are keeping local feed grain values supported, and a smaller wheat crop lifts feed wheat alternatives. Doubts about the official wheat estimate add uncertainty to supply expectations.
queenslandcountrylife.com.auLloyd George, Ag ScientiaFeb 24, 2020Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
