
Soufflet Agriculture forecast France's 2026 soft wheat crop at 31.5-32 million tonnes, down from 33.4 million last year, with drought and heat in western regions partly offset by better northern and eastern yields. It also raised its rapeseed forecast to 4.5-4.6 million tonnes, close to last year's level, and reported strong wheat and barley quality.
A French wheat crop still roughly 4% below last year keeps some export supply tight, but the strong quality and near-flat rapeseed outlook limit the upside for prices.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.