USD/JPY rose above 107.00 as US President Trump threatened tariffs on China over the handling of the coronavirus outbreak and said the trade deal had been upset. Risk aversion and fears of a global recession supported the dollar.
Renewed US-China trade tension threatens export demand for US farm products, which is bearish for soybeans and corn, while a stronger dollar pressures commodity prices.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 45 past bullish trade events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.4%), and -0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.