U.S. ethanol producers reported quarterly losses and blamed the trade war with China and renewable fuel policy for their problems. Green Plains posted a $12.5 million third-quarter net loss, and China, which had been expected to import about 200 million gallons this year, has been absent from the market for months.
Loss of Chinese ethanol demand and the resulting inventory glut reduce demand for U.S. corn and DDGS. U.S. ethanol futures near decade lows point to continued weakness in corn processing demand.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.