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US ethanol exports are forecast to fall about 100 million gallons year on year to 1.5 billion gallons in 2019 as shipments shift away from China. China's 70% duty on US denatured ethanol has effectively halted shipments there this year.
Redirected export flows toward Southeast Asia and India only partly offset the lost China market, keeping domestic ethanol supply heavy and corn demand from ethanol under pressure.
After 683 past bearish trade events, CORN moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.