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Purdue researchers estimate that COVID-19 and the oil price decline will sharply reduce corn use for ethanol and DDGS production. Lower gasoline demand from shelter-in-place orders and recession is expected to lift corn ending stocks for the 2019 crop year.
Lower ethanol-related corn demand points to larger corn stocks and downward pressure on corn prices, while reduced DDGS output tightens feed supply and supports substitute feed prices.
ag.purdue.eduSarah E Zahn, Morgan FrenchApr 13, 2020Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 171 past bearish report events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.5% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -4.8% to +1.9%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
