
USDA's September crop report projected a record 2018 U.S. corn yield of 181.4 bushels per acre and production of 14.827 billion bushels, up 241 million from August. December corn futures fell to contract lows after the report surprised the market.
A record crop forecast raises expected supplies and pressures corn prices lower, lowering feed grain costs for buyers, though the yield forecast may be revised later.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.