
OPEC lowered its 2022 oil demand growth forecast by 480,000 bpd to 3.67 million bpd and cut its global GDP growth estimate to 3.9%. The cuts reflect the Ukraine war, Chinese lockdowns and inflation, while Brent traded above $105.
Lower demand forecasts weigh on crude prices, though OPEC+ is likely to keep its production targets, limiting downside for energy costs.
After 129 past bearish report events, BRENT moved a median -1.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.9% to +2.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 171 past bearish report events, WTI moved a median -1.5% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -4.8% to +1.9%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.