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The EIA's January Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts Brent averaging $83 a barrel in 2023 and falling in the second half, with WTI at $77. The agency expects global petroleum inventories to build by more than 0.6 million barrels a day in 2023 and 2024.
It also flags the EU ban on Russian petroleum product imports effective February 5.
A forecast of rising inventories and falling crude prices in the second half lowers the expected energy cost trend for feed and freight, though the EU product ban adds near-term disruption risk.
eia.govU.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) (.gov)Feb 1, 2023After 129 past bearish report events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.9% to +2.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 171 past bearish report events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.5% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -4.8% to +1.9%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
