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The EIA's December STEO forecasts global oil inventories falling by 200,000 b/d in the first half of 2023 and rising by about 700,000 b/d in the second half. Its Brent forecast for 2023 was cut to $92/bbl, $3 lower than the prior month.
US distillate margins are expected to fall 19% in 2023.
A lower crude and diesel price outlook reduces energy and transport costs for feed mills, although EU restrictions on Russian petroleum products add supply uncertainty.
ogj.comOGJ editorsDec 6, 2022After 129 past bearish report events, BRENT moved a median -1.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.9% to +2.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 171 past bearish report events, WTI moved a median -1.5% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -4.8% to +1.9%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 86 past bearish report events, DIESEL moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -4.3% to +0.9%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
