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ING's weekly FX preview expects the dollar index, at 98.17, to trade mildly bearish with a range of 97.80 to 99.00. It expects the ECB to top up its pandemic purchase programme and EU stimulus hopes to support the euro.
US-China tensions are flagged as the main risk driver for the week.
A forecast softer dollar supports dollar-denominated commodity prices, but renewed US-China tension could reverse that by lifting risk aversion. Feed buyers should watch the trade-driven swings in currency flows.
think.ing.comChris Turner, Francesco PesoleMay 29, 2020After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 388 past bullish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.1%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
