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ING analysts argue the dollar's strength since March reflects temporary USD funding stress and emerging-market outflows. They expect the dollar to fall back once dollar funding markets normalize, with commodity and EM currencies having already priced in much of the decline.
A reversal in dollar strength would tend to support dollar-priced commodities and improve import affordability in emerging markets. This is a forecast rather than a confirmed event.
think.ing.comChris TurnerApr 2, 2020After 1,637 past bearish macro events, DXY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
