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An FX strategist argues the dollar is unlikely to keep rising as the U.S.-led trade war escalates, citing Harley-Davidson's plan to shift production after EU retaliatory tariffs. The note expects U.S. growth forecasts to be too optimistic given trade tensions.
A weaker dollar expectation would support dollar-priced commodities, while escalating tariffs would still weigh on export demand for U.S. farm goods.
think.ing.comViraj Patel Foreign Exchange StrategistJun 26, 2018After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
