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Analysts previewed the ECB meeting and expected the euro not to be a risk event, as the policy focus had shifted to rising bond yields. They saw no need for the ECB to lean against euro strength.
A front-loaded PEPP would only move the euro significantly if the envelope were increased.
Euro-specific drivers are expected to take a back seat to US yields and dollar strength. The analysts expect EUR/USD to rebound from a recent fall that they judge overdone.
think.ing.comCarsten BrzeskiMar 10, 2021After 388 past bullish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.1%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
