◂ Event Timeline

Mar 11, 2021MACROEurozone

EUR and ECB: Dovish for bonds, but not for EUR

The ECB announced it would front-load purchases under its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) to contain rising euro-zone bond yields. The total PEPP envelope was left unchanged, so only the pace of buying shifts.

WHY IT MATTERS

Because the overall size is unchanged, the move is seen as having little negative impact on the euro. Steadier core bond yields reduce support for the US dollar, which supports EUR/USD.

AFFECTSEURUSD▲DXY▼

SOURCE
think.ing.comMar 11, 2021

Price reaction & history

EURUSD▲bullishSO FAR1d +0.7%5d +0.0%20d -0.1%

After 388 past bullish macro events, EURUSD moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.1%), and +0.1% over 20.

Dec 13, 2018EUR & ECB: No fireworks | articles | ING THINK+0.5%
Mar 10, 2021EUR and ECB Cribsheet | articles | ING THINK+0.1%
Dec 8, 2020EUR and ECB Crib Sheet | articles | ING THINK+0.1%
Apr 28, 2020EUR & ECB crib sheet | articles | ING THINK+0.8%
Feb 3, 2022EUR/USD: A new range after the ECB meeting | articles | ING THINK+1.2%

DXY▼bearishSO FAR1d -0.6%5d -0.4%20d -0.3%

After 1,637 past bearish macro events, DXY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.

Dec 13, 2018EUR & ECB: No fireworks | articles | ING THINK-0.1%
Jun 26, 2018For the US dollar, the only way is not up | articles | ING THINK+0.8%
Apr 2, 2020FX: In the dollar we do not trust | articles | ING THINK-0.5%
Nov 11, 2022FX Daily: Too early for a broad dollar downtrend | articles | ING THINK-0.7%
Mar 4, 2021FX: Dollar bounce underwhelms | articles | ING THINK+0.7%

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

EURUSD · GP ▸

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