
Dairy markets are recovering from a deep trough caused by lost food service demand for cheese and butterfat during COVID-19 lockdowns. Lockdown relaxation is expected to be staggered, and surplus milk and product measures so far look limited.
Expected stock builds in SMP, butter and cheese keep downside pressure on dairy prices until demand clearly rebuilds in Europe and the US, which weighs on dairy-based feed ingredients sentiment.
After 49 past bearish macro events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -8.5% to +0.6%), and -7.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.