
Wholesale dairy markets rebounded from COVID-19 foodservice closures, with cheese and butter prices recovering on strong retail sales and government aid. The author expects a deep recession to weigh on western food spending and cheese demand, pushing more milk into powder production.
Weaker cheese and cream demand will shift milk into powder and butter, pressuring dairy product prices and keeping skim milk powder steady as stocks build.
After 49 past bearish macro events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -8.5% to +0.6%), and -7.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.