
The August 2020 global dairy update says commodity prices have weakened in most major producing regions. Milk supply is expanding faster than last year while demand slows, and COVID-19 restrictions and recession risks are weighing on cheese and butter trade.
Expanding milk supply and slowing demand point to continued downward pressure on global dairy prices, which lowers the cost of dairy-derived feed ingredients over the coming months.
After 49 past bearish macro events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -8.5% to +0.6%), and -7.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The global update reported weaker prices, faster milk supply growth and slowing demand, which is a bearish backdrop for Class III.