
Global milk output growth remains subdued, with Jan-June production estimated down 0.4 percent, while Irish output rose about 10 percent. Dairy markets are sluggish with easier butter prices, as weaker economic growth in the Eurozone, US and China dampens demand.
New Zealand's 2019/20 season has started strongly.
Soft demand and easing butter prices outweigh the tight supply picture, keeping dairy prices under pressure despite lower output. Buyers of dairy-based feed should expect limited upside in the near term.
After 49 past bearish macro events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -8.5% to +0.6%), and -7.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.