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USDA Outlook Forum commentary noted US dairy cow numbers were up 100,000 year over year in December, the largest gain in some time and the highest since the mid-1980s. Historical data suggests such production growth has usually been followed by lower Class III prices over the following six months.
Historically large herd and output growth points to sustained downward pressure on milk prices, lowering dairy-sector demand for feed in the medium term.
hoards.comCorey GeigerFeb 25, 2021After 49 past bearish macro events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -8.5% to +0.6%), and -7.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
