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Dairy economists at the University of Wisconsin say the pandemic has turned dairy markets upside down. USDA reported February milk production up 1.7% year over year, and dairy exports have hit port bottlenecks.
Powder prices have fallen from a futures forecast of $1.25 to about $1 per pound, and May Class IV futures are down $5 per hundredweight since mid-January.
Weaker powder demand and rising milk output reduce dairy prices and pressure milk-based feed ingredients. Export bottlenecks limit the outlet for surplus U.S. milk powder.
capitalpress.comCAROL RYAN DUMASCapital PressMar 25, 2020After 49 past bearish macro events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -8.5% to +0.6%), and -7.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Late-March coverage of pandemic demand disruption, with production up and export bottlenecks, set up the bearish supply/demand backdrop and weighed on dairy futures.
