
University of Wisconsin dairy policy analyst Mark Stephenson said the pandemic's third US surge, not yet peaked as of Oct. 22, will continue to weigh on dairy demand.
Food service sales, which account for over half of cheese and butter consumption, remain sharply reduced, with pizza a notable exception.
Persistent foodservice weakness limits dairy product demand and milk price recovery into 2021. Lower dairy margins may restrain herd expansion and feed purchases.
After 49 past bearish macro events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -8.5% to +0.6%), and -7.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.