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Virginia dairy officials say the pandemic closed restaurants and schools, which cancelled orders and left the US with about a 10% milk oversupply. About 5% of national milk was dumped in late March and early April.
Farmers were expected to feel the price pressure when April milk payments arrived in May.
A 10% oversupply is far larger than the usual 1-2% surplus and has pushed milk prices sharply lower. Cheese-linked pricing means the impact extends to processing demand and milk-based feed ingredients.
dnronline.comIAN MUNRO Daily News-RecordApr 29, 2020After 49 past bearish macro events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -8.5% to +0.6%), and -7.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
A roughly 10% oversupply and milk dumping signal a supply glut that pressures cheese and milk prices, with farmers expected to feel the price pressure when April milk payments arrive.
A roughly 10% oversupply with dumping and the expectation of price pressure in May payments point to a supply-demand imbalance pushing prices lower.
