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Global milk output has grown about 2% while demand rose only 1.5%, creating pressure on dairy prices. Butter prices are firming after falls in late 2017, while powder demand is weaker, and snow and ice in Northwest Europe cut UK milk deliveries.
Supply growing faster than demand weighs on powder and milk prices, while weather-related losses in Europe provide only a temporary offset to the surplus.
After 49 past bearish macro events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -8.5% to +0.6%), and -7.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.