Argentina's grain exporters chamber CIARA-CEC said soy crushing will fall about 9.5% in 2020, to roughly 38 million tonnes from 42 million in 2019. Idle plant capacity is around 50%, and crushing has already dropped sharply in August.
The decline is blamed on high taxes, lower grain flows from farms and foreign exchange volatility.
Lower Argentine crushing reduces global soymeal and soyoil supply, which supports meal and oil prices and keeps buyers looking to US and other origins.
After 342 past bullish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.1% to +2.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 224 past bullish trade events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.